Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
